Memristor Moments & Hurricane Hunting - A Peek At What 2014 Will Bring

It's always good to take a punt on what might happen in the future.  Forty years ago the science fiction writer Isaac Asimov wrote that you might find the following in a 2014 World Trade Fair, and he is not too far off the mark as some of his predictions show:

“By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

"Men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better”

"Gadgetry will continue to relieve mankind of tedious jobs. Kitchen units will be devised that will prepare automeals"

"It will be such computers, much miniaturized, that will serve as the "brains" of robots"

"Much effort will be put into the designing of vehicles with "Robot-brains"*vehicles that can be set for particular destinations and that will then proceed there without interference by the slow reflexes of a human driver"

"Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books".

If anything the pace of change has increased significantly since 1964 so what trends and developments might we expect in the year ahead?  The following are the results of my crystal ball gazing.

The Way We Work

The debate about the merits of remote working will continue to ebb and flow, with no clear cut decision either way. The BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) approach will bring with it  a huge surge in the growth of the mobile workforce.  This will be coupled by a corresponding growth in the need for data and device security as imported malware on personal devices will pose any even greater threat to company security.

As businesses evolve into 'any-time/anywhere' enterprises the change will bring with it a huge societal shift, as new technologies increasingly blurs the line between 'work' and 'play'.  The need to reinforce a work/life balance in the workforce will be greater than ever as the realisation sinks in that the new work practice is not simply about handing out smart devices to employees.  Companies will also need to become less risk averse if they are to succeed.

Mobile But Not As We Know It

Mobile will continue to be one of the dominant trends in 2014 and we will have even greater dependence on our mobile devices. Marketing will increasingly focus on mobile and mobile content marketing strategies will separate out those who succeed in the marketplace and those who do not.

Mobile Apps will be more carefully targeted and smaller.  Their development will surge ahead at the expense of applications.  There is a prediction that app developers will be looking for ways to snap together apps to create larger applications.

It is probable, but not definite, that augmented reality glasses such as Google Glass will finally go mainstream in 2014, as the march towards wearables continues. Smart watches will become 'de rigueur' in all the smartest circles and will live up to their name by becoming even smarter than the existing prototypes we have today.

Transformative Technologies

There are several of these either in use, or in the offing.  Here are my top picks for the year ahead:

• Bitcoins
  Although I have written previously (with guarded skepticism) about the merits or otherwise of Bitcoins, it is clear that there is continuing adoption of the alternative 'currency'. But it's a case of 'buyer beware' as, while is has apparently been a boon for online drug peddlers, its value fluctuates widely. Between November and December 2013 Bitcoin's value rose from $US 200 to $US 1,200 only to lose half its value by December 7th.
  Little wonder then most holders of Bitcoins are keen to change them into more tangible assets such as bullion. According to Business Insider nearly $US 7 million of bitcoins were spent on Black Friday and a large proportion of them were traded for silver and gold coins and bars.
• Drones
  Although both loved and loathed in equal measure depending which side of the political fence you are on, robotics and drones in particular are more and more invading our lives.  Miniaturisation and new nano material technologies make this feasible and affordable.
  While military uses of drones are well known, the recent announcement by Amazon.com that it would use drones to convey book orders to customers broadened the debate about their use.
  Other uses include Tijuana authorities using them to monitor traffic, locate landslides and control wildfires. The US uses them to hunt hurricanes, undertake 3D-mapping, monitor the condition of farmer's fields and offer a degree of protection for wildlife.
  
  

• Get your DNA sequenced for just $100
  Surprising as it may seem this is not as revolutionary as it at first sounds.  A new nanofluidic chip developed by BioNanomatrix makes this such cheap sequencing possible.  In the future personalised medicine will mean that your doctor will be able to determine (for example) genetic changes in a cancerous tumor with increased accuracy -  and for the what it would cost you today to have a chest X-Ray.
• The year of the Memristor
  Your cat is smarter than a supercomputer;  its synapses switch on and interconnects thousands of neurons, modifying brain circuits and boosting functions such as facial recognition. University of Michigan scientist, Wei Lu, told The Register that he believes that "Memristors can potentially learn like synapses and be used to build human brain-like computers".
• VoIP phone calls (made via the Internet on platforms such as Skype) will surpass the use of standard land-line connections in 2014
• Your check out operator at the local supermarket will become an increasing novelty as retail turns increasingly to automated systems
• Apple's Touch ID technology will; find greater use in other applications and products
• 3D Printing which has already ushered in a new 'industrial revolution' will expand it use exponentially in 2014

..and, remembering another 1964 prediction of Isaac Asimov,

"Complete lunches and dinners, with the food semiprepared, will be stored in the freezer until ready for processing"

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A Maker of "Things"

The Shoemaker and the Elves
The Brothers Grimm

"The problem is we no longer make 'things'".  So said an unemployed European architect in a recent BBC programme, on the problems of unemployment in that part of the world.

The Manchester City replica jersey that he bought when on a trip to Britain in his teens has a label 'Made in England'.  He challenged his fellow panellists to find a similar football jersey with the same manufacturer's mark today.  Inevitably,. a 2013 version will have 'Made in China' stamped on its label.

It got me thinking about just how important making 'things' were to an economy; as opposed to a country that acts solely as a financial hub and has little or no production of 'real objects'.  Or for that matter, an online hub that produces no real goods and simply trades on the products of others.

It is no coincidence that the most successful country in the Euro-zone is Germany who still have a solid engineering and manufacturing base.  Compare it to Spain where much of production has gone off-shore.  The latter has an unemployment rate that is now hovering around a quarter of its entire population.

I am fortunate to live in country that still produces 'things' that other countries need to sustain their population.  In our case its agricultural products and on the back of this, our economy ticks along even though we are far away from our principal markets.

While it is true that the Internet makes it easy to work from anywhere, and within any time zone, not everyone's profession or trade easily translates into an online opportunity.  My own consultancy and sphere of employment works well across countries but others are not so well off.

The next big challenge to global employment is not the ongoing shift of production to Asia, or even robotics, but rather, the 'Internet of Things'.  Many of those employed in intermediary roles in information technology will find themselves superfluous to requirements, as machines talk directly to machines without the need for human intervention.

This is a trend that is neither going to be halted or gradually fade away. John Chambers of CISCO presents a rosy vision of the future when he says "factor in societal benefits to citizens, communities and countries, as well as consumer benefits, you begin to get a sense for the Internet of Everything’s potential to enable improved quality of life, richer experiences, new capabilities and increased economic value".

He goes on to note "Along with great opportunity, the emergence of the Internet of Everything will present technology, organizational, process, regulatory, cultural, and other challenges".

I would suggest that to be an active participant in the 'The Internet of Things' age one will need to work and live in a society that fosters innovation. We are all aware that economies that are the real drivers of innovation. A sick economy is not conducive to building an environment where employment growth can be built upon the back of innovation.

CTO Scott Morrison writing in an article for Gigacom points out that Apple created an economy around the iPhone "by designing both a platform on which third parties could innovate, and then the means to capitalize on their applications". And by creating this economy all manner of people then had the opportunity to build products and to innovate.

As I wrote in a 2011 post, the emergence of a global data field and machines talking to machines without human intervention creates both challenges and opportunities.

The 'Internet of Things' mean new business models and these will have profound implications for employment.  Smart grids and similar infrastructure utilities will affect all of our lives and by extension, our employment options.

If you are manufacturing the actual 'things' that interconnect then you are on to a winner.  If though, your purpose thus far is to be a technical or bureaucratic intermediary, then a quick course in cheese-making 101 might be your best bet.

Related articles

• We can't let the Internet of Things become the Tyranny of Things [GigaOM]
• What Is The Internet of Things?
• Government Pumps £8.6m Into 'Internet Of Things' And Green IT Research
• Getting Connected

And You Thought E-Banking Was A New Phenomena?

How the brave new world of banking as viewed in 1969.

Toying With An Idea

There used to be a time when serious educationalists and more importantly parents, frowned on the viewing of cartoons. Reading of 'proper books' was vigorously promoted and cartoons or comics were consigned to the frivolous entertainment basket.

Construction play started with painted wooden blocks and migrated to meccano sets and more latterly, plastic blogs such as Lego. Several decade later and the digital revolution has also had (for better or worse) a profound impact on child learning toys and activities.

Realising that a child's Play inspires and promotes the creative process from an early age, US company LaunchPad have designed products that enable mobile devices like the iPad to bridge this gap between informal and formal learning.

Their stated goal is to harness the power of play to help children capture and share their ideas with other kids around the world.

More specifically their educational goals are to:

1. Empower young children to share their ideas and stories with friends and family by bridging the gap between formal writing and imaginative play.
2. Introduce and guide key storytelling principles like Character, Setting, Story Arc, and Emotion to help structure kids’ creative writing.
3. Promote cultural literacy through ToonTube: A Global Storytelling Network for Kids, by Kids.

Recently created cartoons by children on ToonTube

The underlying developmental theory is that "Constructionist software aims to draw out a child’s implicit understanding of curricula and make it explicit through visual and physical representation so that the child may better "debug" and reconstruct his or her mental model"

"Toontastic draws out the emotive structure implicit within storytelling by using an explicit template for visually mapping story events and emotions while constructing one’s cartoon. This helps the child to create a more impactful, coherent, and ultimately educational story"

This then is a serious attempt to mesh sound educational learning principles with digital delivery. A child is encouraged to build their story-line one scene at a time.

The Toontastic app has recently been added to Apple's App Store Hall of Fame.  To date there have been 40,000 paid downloads user imagination has created 170,000 cartoon characters.

It comes as no surprise to learn that Co-founder Andy Russell was with toy maker Hasbro in a former  working life. The company intends to continue building apps that combine play with defined learning goals.

Not to be outdone, Lego has joined the battle for young hearts and minds with Lego Universe although its educational value is more difficult to define.

Lego Universe won best game at E3 in 2010. A  family-oriented game it fosters creativity and imagination are the focus of this game and security measures make it safe for family playing.

A final word about ToonTastic which incidentally was developed in partnership with Stanford’s School of Education and Zeum: San Francisco’s Children’s Museum.  They have posted their advice for user testing with children which should become gospel for other childrens game developers.

Related articles

• Last Chance to Enter: Toontastic Summer Cartoon Competition (wired.com)